Macau casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) fell about 12% in the first seven days of July compared with the last week of June, Citigroup said on Monday.
Citigroup this month estimated a seven-day GGR of 3.85 billion MOPs ($478.8 million), which “means an increase of about 550 million MOPs per day.”
“This was about 12% below the 628 million MOPs a day in the last week of June,” the note said.
“We are conservatively holding our July 2019 GGR forecast at MOP1.90 billion,” the financial institution said.
Macau’s June GGR itself fell about 12% in May, a very strong month, according to data from the Macau government.
“Macao is still at its seasonal low point, and we expect its daily utilization rate to come from its low point around mid-July,” Citigroup added.
Based on industry sources, the agency estimated VIP gambling volumes were down about 3% to 4% month-on-month, but said VIP retention rates were in the “normal” range.
Massplay volumes are down about 4% to 5% month-on-month.
“We expect Macau’s industrial EBITDA to be down about 5% quarter-over-quarter,” Citcorp’s George Choi and Ryan Cheng said in a note previewing the Macau gaming market’s second-quarter earnings season, referring to earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortization. That’s still up about 18% year-over-year, they added.
Analysts nonetheless observed: “Our analyses suggest EBITDA margins for a total of six casino operators are still relatively well maintained at around 28%, reflecting already significant disruption from the London [Macao] Phase 2 renovation and weaker [market] retail sales.”
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